The COVID-19 counting fiasco: Is the real total of deaths closer to 10 million? In-depth analysis from India and other countries.

Rodney P. Jones, PhD

Abstract


An interview with Dr. Jones about this article's subject matter can be found HERE

As of May 1st, 2021 the “reported” COVID-19 death toll stands at >3.2 million. The 3.2 million total had been exceeded by 8pm (GMT) of that day. Is the real death toll far higher than this? Low levels of testing for COVID-19 are common in around half of world countries. All these countries share common features, namely, high proportion of the population living in slums, relatively low healthcare resources as reflected in low hospital bed numbers (much COVID-19 testing will occur in hospitals), high population density in large towns/cities. Most African countries, except for South Africa, Egypt, and several others do not have a mandatory death registration process. In most cases death certificates are paper records. Annual deaths are an estimate and monthly/weekly deaths are not available. Most of the large Asian countries such as Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines, have many of the same problems. A minority of countries stopped or do not report COVID-19 deaths. Censorship in China meant that deaths stopped being reported just as COVID-19 deaths were undergoing a huge surge. In the early days of the pandemic countries such as Iran, Tajikistan, etc were denying that a problem even existed. Some Indian states have reported fewer than 5 COVID-19 deaths. There is reason to believe that the real death toll is probably closer to 10 million.


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